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ECMs are a theoretically-driven approach useful for estimating both short-term and long-term effects of one time series on another. The term error-correction relates to the fact that last-period's deviation from a long-run equilibrium, the error, influences its short-run dynamics. Thus ECMs directly estimate the speed at which a dependent ...
Throughout this article, boldfaced unsubscripted and are used to refer to random vectors, and Roman subscripted and are used to refer to scalar random variables.. If the entries in the column vector = (,, …,) are random variables, each with finite variance and expected value, then the covariance matrix is the matrix whose (,) entry is the covariance [1]: 177 ...
=, where is a lower triangular matrix obtained by a Cholesky decomposition of such that = ′, where is the covariance matrix of the errors Φ i = J A i J ′ , {\displaystyle \Phi _{i}=JA^{i}J',} where J = [ I k 0 … 0 ] , {\displaystyle J={\begin{bmatrix}\mathbf {I} _{k}&0&\dots &0\end{bmatrix}},} so that J {\displaystyle J} is a k ...
The sample covariance matrix (SCM) is an unbiased and efficient estimator of the covariance matrix if the space of covariance matrices is viewed as an extrinsic convex cone in R p×p; however, measured using the intrinsic geometry of positive-definite matrices, the SCM is a biased and inefficient estimator. [1]
With any number of random variables in excess of 1, the variables can be stacked into a random vector whose i th element is the i th random variable. Then the variances and covariances can be placed in a covariance matrix, in which the (i, j) element is the covariance between the i th random variable and the j th one.
August 2008) (Learn how and when to remove this message) In probability theory , the multidimensional Chebyshev's inequality [ 1 ] is a generalization of Chebyshev's inequality , which puts a bound on the probability of the event that a random variable differs from its expected value by more than a specified amount.
The components of a vector are often represented arranged in a column. By contrast, a covector has components that transform like the reference axes. It lives in the dual vector space, and represents a linear map from vectors to scalars. The dot product operator involving vectors is a good example of a covector.
Here i represents the equation number, r = 1, …, R is the individual observation, and we are taking the transpose of the column vector. The number of observations R is assumed to be large, so that in the analysis we take R → ∞ {\displaystyle \infty } , whereas the number of equations m remains fixed.