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The doomsday argument (DA), or Carter catastrophe, is a probabilistic argument that claims to predict the future population of the human species based on an estimation of the number of humans born to date. The doomsday argument was originally proposed by the astrophysicist Brandon Carter in 1983, [1] leading to the initial name of the Carter ...
If the doomsday argument can apply to itself it can be simultaneously right (as a probabilistic argument) and probably wrong (as a prediction).. Therefore, Landsberg and Dewynne argue that it is more likely that the doomsday argument is wrong (even if its logic is correct) than that the human race will become extinct in 9,000 years (which the doomsday argument calculates at around 95% likely).
The self-indication assumption doomsday argument rebuttal is an objection to the doomsday argument (that there is only a 5% chance of more than twenty times the historic number of humans ever being born) by arguing that the chance of being born is not one, but is an increasing function of the number of people who will be born.
(Brandon Carter's alternative form of the Doomsday argument was delivered earlier that year, but Gott's derivation was independent.) He made a major effort subsequently to defend his form of the Doomsday argument from a variety of philosophical attacks, and this debate (like the feasibility of closed time loops) is still ongoing.
Self-referencing doomsday argument rebuttal This page was last edited on 7 December 2024, at 03:00 (UTC). Text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution ...
Doomsday may refer to: Eschatology , a time period described in the eschatological writings in Abrahamic religions and in doomsday scenarios of non-Abrahamic religions. Global catastrophic risk , a hypothetical event explored in science and fiction where human civilization or life is at risk of partial or complete destruction.
The Doomsday Clock is a symbol that represents the estimated likelihood of a human-made global catastrophe, in the opinion of the members of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. [1] Maintained since 1947, the Clock is a metaphor , not a prediction, for threats to humanity from unchecked scientific and technological advances.
Doomsday argument – Doomsday scenario on human births; Fermi paradox – Discrepancy of the lack of evidence for alien life despite its apparent likelihood; Goldilocks principle – Analogy for optimal conditions; Great Filter – Hypothesis of barriers to forming interstellar civilizations