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Markov chain models have been used in advanced baseball analysis since 1960, although their use is still rare. Each half-inning of a baseball game fits the Markov chain state when the number of runners and outs are considered. During any at-bat, there are 24 possible combinations of number of outs and position of the runners.
A finite-state machine can be used as a representation of a Markov chain. Assuming a sequence of independent and identically distributed input signals (for example, symbols from a binary alphabet chosen by coin tosses), if the machine is in state y at time n , then the probability that it moves to state x at time n + 1 depends only on the ...
A Markov chain with two states, A and E. In probability, a discrete-time Markov chain (DTMC) is a sequence of random variables, known as a stochastic process, in which the value of the next variable depends only on the value of the current variable, and not any variables in the past.
A continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) is a continuous stochastic process in which, for each state, the process will change state according to an exponential random variable and then move to a different state as specified by the probabilities of a stochastic matrix. An equivalent formulation describes the process as changing state according to ...
For a continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) with transition rate matrix, if can be found such that for every pair of states and = holds, then by summing over , the global balance equations are satisfied and is the stationary distribution of the process. [5]
In 1953 the term Markov chain was used for stochastic processes with discrete or continuous index set, living on a countable or finite state space, see Doob. [1] or Chung. [2] Since the late 20th century it became more popular to consider a Markov chain as a stochastic process with discrete index set, living on a measurable state space. [3] [4] [5]
The Markov chain tree theorem considers spanning trees for the states of the Markov chain, defined to be trees, directed toward a designated root, in which all directed edges are valid transitions of the given Markov chain. If a transition from state to state has transition probability ,, then a tree with edge set () is defined to have weight ...
Figure 1. Probabilistic parameters of a hidden Markov model (example) X — states y — possible observations a — state transition probabilities b — output probabilities. In its discrete form, a hidden Markov process can be visualized as a generalization of the urn problem with replacement (where each item from the urn is returned to the original urn before the next step). [7]