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Across the 12 general elections from 1992 to 2024, the site correctly predicted the party to win the most seats in all but one (1992). They also correctly predicted the outcome, that is, the party winning a majority or a hung parliament, in six elections (majorities in 1997, 2001, 2005, 2015, 2017 (by a majority of only 3), 2019, 2024; hung parliament for 2010).
The dates of these opinion polls range from the previous general election on 4 July 2024 to the present. The next general election must be held no later than 15 August 2029 under the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022. The Act mandates that any Parliament automatically dissolves five years after it first met – unless it is ...
The 2022 Welsh local elections are contested under new boundaries. This is the first time Welsh councils can choose between the first-past-the-post system and a proportional single transferable vote (STV) system, but councils need to give advance notice of such a change.
The Conservative Party under Rishi Sunak lost 251 seats and suffered their worst ever defeat, ending their 14-year tenure as the primary governing party. The Conservatives won no seats in Wales and only one seat in North East England. [9]
While predicting an overall growth of 4.2% for 2022, the OBR forecast the economy would shrink by around 1.4% during 2023. After that, however, it predicted growth for the years 2024–2026, with 1.3% in 2024, 2.6% in 2025, and 2.7% in 2026. The rate of inflation was predicted to be 9.1% in 2022 and 7.4% in 2023.
Reform UK: Green: Leader since 3 June 2024 1 October 2021: Leader's seat Clacton: Bristol Central and Waveney Valley: Last election 0 seats, 2.0% 1 seat, 3.0% Seats before 1 1 Seats won 5 4 Seat change 5 3 Popular vote 3,726,224 1,780,226 Percentage 15.3% 7.3% Swing 13.3% [b] 4.3%
The next day, Zahawi and Donelan called for Johnson to resign, with Donelan herself resigning from the cabinet. [63] A poll by YouGov showed that 59% of Conservative Party members wanted Johnson to resign. [64] Johnson announced his pending resignation on the same day, 7 July, saying a new leader would take office before October 2022.
The chart below depicts opinion polls conducted in the lead up to the 2019 UK general election using a LOESS lines. As discussed below, most of these polls do not include Northern Ireland. The final points represent the actual results of the election. Polling for the 2019 UK general election campaign period (6 November 2019 onwards).