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Weather reconnaissance aircraft, such as this WP-3D Orion, provide data that is then used in numerical weather forecasts.. The atmosphere is a fluid.As such, the idea of numerical weather prediction is to sample the state of the fluid at a given time and use the equations of fluid dynamics and thermodynamics to estimate the state of the fluid at some time in the future.
Even with the increasing power of supercomputers, the forecast skill of numerical weather models only extends to about two weeks into the future, since the density and quality of observations—together with the chaotic nature of the partial differential equations used to calculate the forecast—introduce errors which double every five days ...
This can be in the form of statistical techniques to remove known biases in the model, or of adjustment to take into account consensus among other numerical weather forecasts. [59] MOS or model output statistics is a technique used to interpret numerical model output and produce site-specific guidance.
An example of a forecast product from the GFS, in this case a 96-hour forecast of 850 mb geopotential height and temperature. The Global Forecast System (GFS) is a global numerical weather prediction system containing a global computer model and variational analysis run by the United States' National Weather Service (NWS).
The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model [1] (/ ˈ w ɔːr f /) is a numerical weather prediction (NWP) system designed to serve both atmospheric research and operational forecasting needs. NWP refers to the simulation and prediction of the atmosphere with a computer model, and WRF is a set of software for this.
The Unified Model is a numerical weather prediction and climate modeling software suite originally developed by the United Kingdom Met Office from 1990, [1] [2] and now both used and further developed by many weather-forecasting agencies around the world. [3]
The North American Mesoscale Model (NAM) is a numerical weather prediction model run by National Centers for Environmental Prediction for short-term weather forecasting. Currently, the Weather Research and Forecasting Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (WRF-NMM) model system serves as the dynamical core of the NAM model.
The Weather Prediction Center serves as a center for quantitative precipitation forecasting, medium range forecasting (three to eight days), and the interpretation of numerical weather prediction computer models.