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The inflation-adjusted rate is called the real interest rate. To estimate the approximate real interest rate on a loan or deposit, subtract the current or forecast inflation rate from the nominal ...
Thus at 3.5% inflation using the rule of 70, it should take approximately 70/3.5 = 20 years for the value of a unit of currency to halve. [1] To estimate the impact of additional fees on financial policies (e.g., mutual fund fees and expenses, loading and expense charges on variable universal life insurance investment portfolios), divide 72 by ...
The Fisher equation can be used in the analysis of bonds.The real return on a bond is roughly equivalent to the nominal interest rate minus the expected inflation rate. But if actual inflation exceeds expected inflation during the life of the bond, the bondholder's real return will suffer.
Related is the concept of "risk return", which is the rate of return minus the risks as measured against the safest (least-risky) investment available. Thus if a loan is made at 15% with an inflation rate of 5% and 10% in risks associated with default or problems repaying, then the "risk adjusted" rate of return on the investment is 0%.
The equation is an approximation; however, the difference with the correct value is small as long as the interest rate and the inflation rate is low. The discrepancy becomes large if either the nominal interest rate or the inflation rate is high. The accurate equation can be expressed using periodic compounding as:
In this analysis, the nominal rate is the stated rate, and the real interest rate is the interest after the expected losses due to inflation. Since the future inflation rate can only be estimated, the ex ante and ex post (before and after the fact) real interest rates may be different; the premium paid to actual inflation (higher or lower).
For other bonds, such as the Series I United States Savings Bonds, the interest rate is adjusted according to inflation. The relationship between coupon payments, breakeven daily inflation and real interest rates is given by the Fisher equation. A rise in coupon payments is a result of an increase in inflation expectations, real rates, or both.
Like the consumer price index (CPI), the GDP deflator is a measure of price inflation/deflation with respect to a specific base year; the GDP deflator of the base year itself is equal to 100. Unlike the CPI, the GDP deflator is not based on a fixed basket of goods and services; the "basket" for the GDP deflator is allowed to change from year to ...