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The book asserts that a "Black Swan" event depends on the observer: for example, what may be a Black Swan surprise for a turkey is not a Black Swan surprise for its butcher. Hence the objective should be to "avoid being the turkey", by identifying areas of vulnerability in order to "turn the Black Swans white".
A black swan (Cygnus atratus) in Australia. The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on a Latin expression which presumed that black swans did ...
The Sunday Times described his 2007 book The Black Swan as one of the 12 most influential books since World War II. [5] Taleb criticized risk management methods used by the finance industry and warned about financial crises, subsequently profiting from the Black Monday (1987) and the 2007–2008 financial crisis. [6]
Nassim Taleb, who wrote the book The Black Swan, warned that markets should expect an even worse shock than the one that sank stocks after the release of DeepSeek's AI technology.. Nassim Taleb ...
It was first published in 2001. Updated editions were released a few years later. The book is the first part of Taleb's multi-volume philosophical essay on uncertainty, titled the Incerto, which also includes The Black Swan (2007–2010), The Bed of Procrustes (2010–2016), Antifragile (2012), and Skin in the Game (2018).
The ludic fallacy, proposed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book The Black Swan , is "the misuse of games to model real-life situations". [1] Taleb explains the fallacy as "basing studies of chance on the narrow world of games and dice". [2] The adjective ludic originates from the Latin noun ludus, meaning "play, game, sport, pastime". [3]
A perfect storm led to Bayesian sinking, experts say. The combination of unlikely factors that could have contributed to the ship's fate constituted a "black swan event," Matthew Schanck, chairman ...
Bitcoin’s black swan event: How the return of Satoshi could pose a $75 billion threat. Jeff John Roberts ... most of those involved in crypto since the early days will quietly concede the theory ...