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If human confidence had perfect calibration, judgments with 100% confidence would be correct 100% of the time, 90% confidence correct 90% of the time, and so on for the other levels of confidence. By contrast, the key finding is that confidence exceeds accuracy so long as the subject is answering hard questions about an unfamiliar topic.
There are plenty of examples of overly confident experts leading followers astray. Think back to the 1998 implosion of Long-Term Capital Management , a hedge fund run by several Nobel Prize winners.
Some researchers include a metacognitive component in their definition. In this view, the Dunning–Kruger effect is the thesis that those who are incompetent in a given area tend to be ignorant of their incompetence, i.e., they lack the metacognitive ability to become aware of their incompetence.
One is the ambiguity of the word "average". It is logically possible for nearly all of the set to be above the mean if the distribution of abilities is highly skewed. For example, the mean number of legs per human being is slightly lower than two because some people have fewer than two and almost none have more.
Pretending to exude confidence might also be the perfect way to land your dream job or trick yourself into riding a rollercoaster. But there’s a time and place for being extremely sure of ...
Confidence plays an underappreciated role in happiness and well-being. Some people naturally have more of it than others. ... Jalen Johnson scores 28 to lead the Hawks over the Bulls 120-110.
Illustration for John Milton's Paradise Lost by Gustave Doré (1866). The spiritual descent of Lucifer into Satan, one of the most famous examples of hubris.. Hubris (/ ˈ h juː b r ɪ s /; from Ancient Greek ὕβρις (húbris) 'pride, insolence, outrage'), or less frequently hybris (/ ˈ h aɪ b r ɪ s /), [1] describes a personality quality of extreme or excessive pride [2] or dangerous ...
6. Move Because You Love Your Body, Not Because You Hate It. Exercise should not be a punishment. It can be a celebration of what your body can do! Find activities you actually enjoy.