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The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a 2007 book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who is a former options trader. The book focuses on the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable outlier events—and the human tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events, retrospectively. Taleb calls this the Black Swan theory.
Taleb notes that in the 19th century, John Stuart Mill used the black swan logical fallacy as a new term to identify falsification. [9] Black swan events were discussed by Taleb in his 2001 book Fooled By Randomness, which concerned financial events. His 2007 book The Black Swan extended the metaphor to events outside financial markets. Taleb ...
Taleb criticized risk management methods used by the finance industry and warned about financial crises, subsequently profiting from the Black Monday (1987) and the 2007–2008 financial crisis. [6] He advocates what he calls a "black swan robust" society, meaning a society that can withstand difficult-to-predict events. [7]
Nassim Nicholas Taleb at an event for Universa Investments in Miami on Jan. 29, 2024. (va Marie Uzcategui—Bloomberg via Getty Images) Nassim Taleb, who wrote the book The Black Swan, ...
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the author of best-selling book The Black Swan, correctly predicted the 2008 financial crash but said "gloomy" times ahead for the U.S. economy are far more easy to spot.
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