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The main American global forecast model, the GFS underwent an upgrade several years ago that improved its reliability for hurricane forecasts. The GFS and GFS Ensembles have struggled in the last ...
An example of a forecast product from the GFS, in this case a 96-hour forecast of 850 mb geopotential height and temperature. The Global Forecast System (GFS) is a global numerical weather prediction system containing a global computer model and variational analysis run by the United States' National Weather Service (NWS).
The first dynamical hurricane track forecast model, the Sanders Barotropic Tropical Cyclone Track Prediction Model (SANBAR), [9] was introduced in 1970 and was used by the National Hurricane Center as part of its operational track guidance through 1989. It was based on a simplified set of atmospheric dynamical equations (the equivalent ...
The GFS was the most skillful single track model for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season at all lead times, and its ensembles are much improved relative to previous iterations.
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season was a very active and extremely destructive Atlantic hurricane season, producing 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes; it was also the first since 2019 to feature multiple Category 5 hurricanes.
Nov. 30 marks the end of the Atlantic hurricane season, and that can't come soon enough. In the meantime, there is now a subtropical storm and two other areas the NHC is watching, according to the ...
The Weather Prediction Center (WPC), located in College Park, Maryland, is one of nine service centers under the umbrella of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), a part of the National Weather Service (NWS), which in turn is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the U.S. Government.
The next name on the list of tropical storms for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is Patty. There is another factor aiding in the potential tropical development.