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The range–frequency compromise in judgment is a theory in cognitive psychology developed by Allen Parducci in the mid-1960s. Range–frequency is descriptive of how judgments reflect a compromise between a range principle that assigns each category to an equal subrange of contextual stimuli and a frequency principle that assigns each of the categories to the same number of contextual stimuli.
Overconfidence effect, a tendency to have excessive confidence in one's own answers to questions. For example, for certain types of questions, answers that people rate as "99% certain" turn out to be wrong 40% of the time. [5] [44] [45] [46] Planning fallacy, the tendency for people to underestimate the time it will take them to complete a ...
The overconfidence effect is a well-established bias in which a person's subjective confidence in their judgments is reliably greater than the objective accuracy of those judgments, especially when confidence is relatively high. [1] [2] Overconfidence is one example of a miscalibration of subjective probabilities.
Factors of risk perceptions. Risk perception is the subjective judgement that people make about the characteristics and severity of a risk. [1] [2] [3] Risk perceptions often differ from statistical assessments of risk since they are affected by a wide range of affective (emotions, feelings, moods, etc.), cognitive (gravity of events, media coverage, risk-mitigating measures, etc.), contextual ...
A continually evolving list of cognitive biases has been identified over the last six decades of research on human judgment and decision-making in cognitive science, social psychology, and behavioral economics. The study of cognitive biases has practical implications for areas including clinical judgment, entrepreneurship, finance, and management.
Peak–end rule: A person's subjective perceptions during the most intense and final moments of an event are averaged together into a single judgment. [52] For example, a person might judge the difficulty of a workout by taking into consideration only the most demanding part of the workout (e.g., Tabata sprints) and what happens at the very end ...
Social judgment theory is a framework that studies human judgment. It is how people's current attitudes shape the development of sharing and communicating information. [ 1 ] The psychophysical principle involved for example, is when a stimulus is farther away from one's judgmental anchor, a contrast effect is highly possible; when the stimulus ...
According to the objectivist view, the rules of Bayesian statistics can be justified by requirements of rationality and consistency and interpreted as an extension of logic. [12] [13] In attempting to justify subjective probability, Bruno de Finetti created the notion of philosophical coherence. According to his theory, a probability assertion ...