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Polling guru Nate Silver has revealed his final prediction model for the 2024 presidential election – and has concluded the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is “literally closer ...
Silver’s model shows Trump has a 51.5% chance of clinching the Electoral College while Harris has a 48.1% chance, according to a Substack post on Sunday morning, Mediate reported.
During the 2016 election, Silver’s model suggested a likely victory for Hillary Clinton but gave Trump around a 30% chance of winning – much higher than most other prognosticators. Election ...
The Keys to the White House, also known as the 13 keys, is a prediction system for determining the outcome of presidential elections in the United States.It was developed by American historian Allan Lichtman and Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981, adapting methods that Keilis-Borok designed for earthquake prediction.
During the 2024 election cycle, the group correctly forecasted 513 out of 525 federal elections correctly using their quantitative models, missing 3 out of 56 calls at the presidential level, 8 out of 435 in the House of Representatives, and 1 out of 34 races in the Senate elections, for a 98% accuracy rating overall.
Even in 2012, which stands out as a good year for both polling and election forecasting, the polls missed election outcomes by 3.2 percentage points. At this early juncture, we can only speculate ...
Other types of forecasting include forecasting models designed to predict the outcomes of international relations or bargaining events. One notable example is the expected utility model developed by American political scientist Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, which solves for the Bayesian Perfect Equilibria outcome of unidimensional policy events ...
The year 2024 was one for the history books, and 538's visual journalists and reporters were hard at work explaining the data behind the news with visualizations and interactives. From 538’s ...