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Sahm rule. In macroeconomics, the Sahm rule, or Sahm rule recession indicator, is a heuristic measure by the United States' Federal Reserve for determining when an economy has entered a recession. [1] It is useful in real-time evaluation of the business cycle and relies on monthly unemployment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
The most well-known recession indicator stopped flashing red, but now another one is going off. Elisabeth Buchwald, CNN. September 13, 2024 at 6:00 AM. Yuki Iwamura/Bloomberg/Getty Images. For ...
Jeff Cox, CNBC. July 24, 2024 at 3:56 PM. Spencer Platt. Wall Street’s favorite recession signal started flashing red in 2022 and hasn’t stopped — and thus far has been wrong every step of ...
A weak July jobs report just triggered one of the most well-known, and historically accurate, recession indicators: the Sahm Rule.But the rule’s inventor, Claudia Sahm, pushed back against the ...
Dow theory. The Dow theory on stock price movement is a form of technical analysis that includes some aspects of sector rotation. The theory was derived from 255 editorials in The Wall Street Journal written by Charles H. Dow (1851–1902), journalist, founder and first editor of The Wall Street Journal and co-founder of Dow Jones and Company.
Table: Overview of predictive recession indicators with a simple threshold at zero [137] Recession Signal Recession Indicator Recession Threshold Current Value Last Data Yes: Yield Curve Indicator: 10y-3m Yield Spread [138] < 0-1.20: August 2024 Yes: Leading Indicator: US Leading Economic Index [139] YoY change < 0-4.8%: August 2024 Yes