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Expected shortfall (ES) is a risk measure—a concept used in the field of financial risk measurement to evaluate the market risk or credit risk of a portfolio. The "expected shortfall at q% level" is the expected return on the portfolio in the worst q % {\displaystyle q\%} of cases.
Under some formulations, it is only equivalent to expected shortfall when the underlying distribution function is continuous at (), the value at risk of level . [2] Under some other settings, TVaR is the conditional expectation of loss above a given value, whereas the expected shortfall is the product of this value with the probability of ...
The United States Energy Information Administration projects (as of 2006) world consumption of oil to increase to 98.3 million barrels per day (15.63 × 10 ^ 6 m 3 /d) in 2015 and 118 million barrels per day (18.8 × 10 ^ 6 m 3 /d) in 2030. [57] This would require a more than 35 percent increase in world oil production by 2030.
For example, if a portfolio of stocks has a one-day 5% VaR of $1 million, that means that there is a 0.05 probability that the portfolio will fall in value by more than $1 million over a one-day period if there is no trading. Informally, a loss of $1 million or more on this portfolio is expected on 1 day out of 20 days (because of 5% probability).
New York's public transit system will stop work on a planned subway line expansion and retreat from other maintenance and improvement projects because of a $16.5 billion shortfall caused by Gov ...
Social Security benefits received a 2.5% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) in 2025, but for many retirees, this is not enough to keep up with rising prices. ... The 2025 COLA shortfall is a good ...
Fewer UW campuses expected to run deficits. Six of the 13 universities project deficits for this coming school year: UW-Oshkosh: $8.6 million. UW-River Falls: $3.2 million. UW-Eau Claire: $1.6 million
Since there are three risk measures covered by RiskMetrics, there are three incremental risk measures: Incremental VaR (IVaR), Incremental Expected Shortfall (IES), and Incremental Standard Deviation (ISD).