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More: Historian's final prediction is for Kamala Harris to win 2024 presidential election Prediction records Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of 9 out of the 10 most recent ...
The national polling average released by Silver on Sunday morning showed Harris over Trump 48.5% to 47.6%. But he cautioned his model doesn’t care about the national polls as much at this stage.
Silver's bulletin forecast vs. Lichtman's '13 Keys to the White House' Silver's final 2024 presidential election forecast had Harris as the winner by a razor-thin margin after she won 40,012 of ...
2024 presidential election predictions: Allan Lichtman vs. Nate Silver -- Who will accurately predict the 2024 election? When is Election Day 2024? When to vote in the U.S.?
In June 2024, Silver joined the prediction market startup Polymarket as an advisor. [4] In August of the same year, Silver published his book On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything, [107] [108] exploring how calculated risks can yield benefits in diverse fields, from finance and poker to effective altruism. [109] 2024 U.S. elections
But in journal articles containing his prediction for 2000 written beforehand, Lichtman wrote that the American people would "elect Al Gore president of the United States". [43] [44] Media outlets widely considered this his only incorrect prediction until 2024. [45] In September 2016, Lichtman predicted a win for Republican nominee Donald Trump ...