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The chance of an unknown asteroid hitting Apophis off its current course at all was less than one-in-a-million. And the odds that such an impact would send it hurtling toward Earth in 2029 was ...
Although early simulations showed that there was a chance Apophis could hit the earth on April 12, 2068, [2] this was later excluded and JPL Horizons calculates that Apophis will be about 1.864 ± 0.003 AU (278.85 ± 0.45 million km) from Earth, [52] [53] making the asteroid much farther than the Sun.
After calculating its potential orbits, astronomers were startled to realize it had a 3% chance of hitting Earth in 2029. In a nod to its horrifying potential, they named it Apophis, an Egyptian ...
In December 2004 when Apophis was estimated to have a 2.7% chance of impacting Earth on 13 April 2029, the uncertainty region for this asteroid had shrunk to 82,818 km. [74] Response to predicted impact
Asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 1.3% chance of impacting Earth in 2032, NASA reports. ... The last time this happened was with the discovery of asteroid Apophis in 2004. It briefly had a nearly 3% impact ...
On December 24, 2004, 370 m (1,210 ft) asteroid 99942 Apophis (at the time yet unnamed and therefore known only by its provisional designation 2004 MN 4) was assigned a 4 on the Torino scale, the highest rating given to date, as the information available at the time translated to a 1.6% chance of Earth impact in April 2029. [91]
These images represent radar observations of Apophis on March 8, 9 and 10, 2021, as it made its last close approach before its 2029 Earth encounter.
This is a list of asteroids that have impacted Earth after discovery and orbit calculation that predicted the impact in advance. As of December 2024 [update] , all of the asteroids with predicted impacts were under 5 m (16 ft) in size that were discovered just hours before impact, and burned up in the atmosphere as meteors .