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Two weeks ago, 538's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former President Donald Trump on Nov. 5. You might be tempted to ...
The 538 predictive model for the 2024 presidential election shows President Biden more likely to win than former President Trump — Biden’s best odds since May. The model’s Tuesday update ...
Tellingly, 538’s latest presidential election forecast gives Vice President Kamala Harris the narrowest of advantages over former President Donald Trump — she wins in 57 in 100 simulations ...
Local regression of two-way polling between Trump, Biden and Kennedy conducted up to the 2024 United States presidential election (excludes others and undecided). The dashed line marks Biden's withdrawal from the race.
The UK election was the first time the FiveThirtyEight team did an election night 'liveblog' of a non-U.S. election. [538 37] In April 2010, The Guardian published Silver's predictions for the 2010 United Kingdom General Election. The majority of polling organisations in the UK use the concept of uniform swing to predict the outcome of elections.
Trump, who was elected president in 2016 but lost a re-election bid in 2020 to Joe Biden, defeated vice president Kamala Harris, who began her campaign following president Joe Biden's exit from the 2024 election. Trump's victory was credited to a surge in inflation, a migrant crisis at the US–Mexico border, [2] and a global anti-incumbent ...
Based on 538’s latest analysis of presidential polls, Trump now has the barest advantage in the race, with a 52-in-100 chance to win. Two weeks ago, Harris had a 58-in-100 chance to win. Two ...
Trump’s polling lead on Harris heading into Election Day had only gotten up to about 0.9% and 1.2% in respective aggregates from Project 538 and RealClear Polling, differences considered toss ...