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  2. Trump has gained in 538's forecast, but the election is still ...

    www.aol.com/trump-gained-538s-forecast-election...

    Two weeks ago, 538's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former President Donald Trump on Nov. 5. You might be tempted to ...

  3. The 2024 election could come down to a single tipping ... - AOL

    www.aol.com/2024-election-could-come-down...

    Tellingly, 538’s latest presidential election forecast gives Vice President Kamala Harris the narrowest of advantages over former President Donald Trump — she wins in 57 in 100 simulations ...

  4. Undecided races of the 2024 election: Live results and analysis

    www.aol.com/undecided-races-2024-election-live...

    Take this example: In Hidalgo County, the most populous in the Rio Grande Valley, Trump beat Harris by 3 percentage points. Compare this to 2020, when Biden won the county by nearly 17 points ...

  5. 2024 polls were accurate but still underestimated Trump

    www.aol.com/entertainment/2024-polls-were...

    According to 538's analysis of polls conducted in competitive states* in which over 95 percent of the expected vote was counted as of Nov. 8 at 6 a.m. Eastern, the average poll conducted over the ...

  6. Who will win the presidential election? The Trump trade ... - AOL

    www.aol.com/finance/win-presidential-election...

    Based on 538’s latest analysis of presidential polls, Trump now has the barest advantage in the race, with a 52-in-100 chance to win. Two weeks ago, Harris had a 58-in-100 chance to win. Two ...

  7. FiveThirtyEight - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight

    The UK election was the first time the FiveThirtyEight team did an election night 'liveblog' of a non-U.S. election. [538 37] In April 2010, The Guardian published Silver's predictions for the 2010 United Kingdom General Election. The majority of polling organisations in the UK use the concept of uniform swing to predict the outcome of elections.

  8. Presidential election polls 2024: Latest surveys on Harris vs ...

    www.aol.com/presidential-election-polls-2024...

    The presidential election is just a week away and Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump are neck and neck in key battleground states. Presidential election polls 2024: Latest surveys ...

  9. 26 charts that helped explain 2024 in politics

    www.aol.com/26-charts-helped-explain-2024...

    From 538’s 2024 presidential election forecast. ... Trump has held more campaign events than Harris () ... From “How often every member of Congress voted with Biden in 2023. ...