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A black swan (Cygnus atratus) in Australia. The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on a Latin expression which presumed that black swans did ...
BCA doubled-down on its recession call for 2025, previously predicting that US stocks could drop by as much as 26% this year.
The Roman satirist Juvenal wrote in AD 82 of rara avis in terris nigroque simillima cygno ("a rare bird in the lands, and very like a black swan"). [6] He meant something whose rarity would compare with that of a black swan, or in other words, as a black swan was not thought to exist, neither did the supposed characteristics of the "rare bird" with which it was being compared.
The ludic fallacy, proposed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book The Black Swan , is "the misuse of games to model real-life situations". [1] Taleb explains the fallacy as "basing studies of chance on the narrow world of games and dice". [2] The adjective ludic originates from the Latin noun ludus, meaning "play, game, sport, pastime". [3]
A perfect storm led to Bayesian sinking, experts say. The combination of unlikely factors that could have contributed to the ship's fate constituted a "black swan event," Matthew Schanck, chairman ...
After predicting impending pain for years, Bank of America is no longer forecasting a U.S. recession at all this year, while JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs put the odds of recession at just 35% and 25 ...
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a 2007 book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who is a former options trader. The book focuses on the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable outlier events—and the human tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events, retrospectively. Taleb calls this the Black Swan theory.
Hedge funder famous for his ‘black swan’ strategy says there’s ‘something immoral’ about America’s reliance on debt—and future generations ‘will bear the burden for this’