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A related project is the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) for global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (GCMs). Coupled models are computer-based models of the Earth's climate, in which different parts (such as atmosphere, oceans, land, ice) are "coupled" together, and interact in simulations. [1]
Climate models vary in complexity. For example, a simple radiant heat transfer model treats the Earth as a single point and averages outgoing energy. This can be expanded vertically (radiative-convective models) and horizontally. More complex models are the coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea ice global climate models.
Often local models are run using global model results for boundary conditions, to achieve higher local resolution: for example, the Met Office runs a mesoscale model with an 11 km (6.8 mi) resolution [34] covering the UK, and various agencies in the US employ models such as the NGM and NAM models. Like most global numerical weather prediction ...
The ensemble variant of the GEM is known as the Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS). It has 20 members (plus control) and runs out 16 days, the same range as the American global forecast system. The GEPS runs alongside the GFS ensemble to form the North American Ensemble Forecast System. A regional ensemble prediction system (REPS ...
All numerical models have shortcomings. Integrated Assessment Models for climate change, in particular, have been severely criticized for problematic assumptions that led to greatly overestimating the cost/benefit ratio for mitigating climate change while relying on economic models inappropriate to the problem. [41]
In the 1980s, the terms global warming and climate change became more common, often being used interchangeably. [29] [30] [31] Scientifically, global warming refers only to increased surface warming, while climate change describes both global warming and its effects on Earth's climate system, such as precipitation changes. [28]
A map tool draws direct lines between an area's projected climate in 60 years and the places that are experiencing that climate today. Will global warming turn L.A. into San Bernardino? Map models ...
For example, the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C was a "key scientific input" into the 2018 United Nations Climate Change Conference. [4] Various pathways are considered in the report, describing scenarios for mitigation of global warming. Pathways include for example portfolios for energy supply and carbon dioxide removal.