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Climate models vary in complexity. For example, a simple radiant heat transfer model treats the Earth as a single point and averages outgoing energy. This can be expanded vertically (radiative-convective models) and horizontally. More complex models are the coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea ice global climate models.
Following is an illustrative model meant for a pedagogical purpose, showing the main physical determinants of the effect. Under this understanding, global warming is determined by a simple energy budget: In the long run, Earth emits radiation in the same amount as it receives from the sun.
Often local models are run using global model results for boundary conditions, to achieve higher local resolution: for example, the Met Office runs a mesoscale model with an 11 km (6.8 mi) resolution [34] covering the UK, and various agencies in the US employ models such as the NGM and NAM models. Like most global numerical weather prediction ...
A related project is the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) for global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (GCMs). Coupled models are computer-based models of the Earth's climate, in which different parts (such as atmosphere, oceans, land, ice) are "coupled" together, and interact in simulations. [1]
HARMONIE-Climate (HCLIM) is a limited area climate model based on the HARMONIE model developed by a large consortium of European weather forecastign and research institutes . It is a model system that like WRF can be run in many configurations, including at high resolution with the non-hydrostatic Arome physics or at lower resolutions with ...
The ensemble variant of the GEM is known as the Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS). It has 20 members (plus control) and runs out 16 days, the same range as the American global forecast system. The GEPS runs alongside the GFS ensemble to form the North American Ensemble Forecast System. A regional ensemble prediction system (REPS ...
A map tool draws direct lines between an area's projected climate in 60 years and the places that are experiencing that climate today. Will global warming turn L.A. into San Bernardino? Map models ...
Scientific consensus on causation: Academic studies of scientific agreement on human-caused global warming among climate experts (2010–2015) reflect that the level of consensus correlates with expertise in climate science. [435] A 2019 study found scientific consensus to be at 100%, [436] and a 2021 study concluded that consensus exceeded 99% ...