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The betting site Polymarket has emerged as a hot topic in the 2024 presidential race. Trump's odds of winning are at 66% there based on bets. National polls generally show the race tied.
The presidential election betting odds gives Donald Trump a 61 percent chance to beat Vice President Kamala Harris in next month's election.
The odds slightly narrowed in the few days before, but by the time the first major polls closed at 6 p.m. ET Tuesday evening, the markets showed around 60% odds for Trump.
With nearly $1 billion wagered on the outcome of the presidential election at Polymarket, Trump's odds of winning were listed as 61.3%, compared to 38.6% for Harris, at 8:52 a.m. ET on Thursday.
Verdict: False. Polymarket is not a polling platform but a betting odds platform. Fact Check: Social media users are claiming that Trump is leading Harris by 15% in the polls.
While the odds of a Trump win have shrunk on some prediction markets, Polymarket shows a 58% chance as of Monday of the former president winning the election over Harris.. In late October ...
(The same study notes that election betting fell out of favor after 1940, as scientific polling grew more sophisticated and reliable.) But just like polls, prediction markets are far from perfect.
The betting markets currently have a slight favor to Trump as the winner of the presidential election, when averaging across two platforms (Betfair and PredictIt), though the odds are much closer ...