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The logistic regression model itself simply models probability of output in terms of input and does not perform statistical classification (it is not a classifier), though it can be used to make a classifier, for instance by choosing a cutoff value and classifying inputs with probability greater than the cutoff as one class, below the cutoff as ...
For the logistic model of P(success) vs dose of caffeine, both graphs show that, for many doses, the estimated probability is not close to the probability observed in the data. This occurs even though the regression gave a significant p-value for caffeine.
If p is a probability, then p/(1 − p) is the corresponding odds; the logit of the probability is the logarithm of the odds, i.e.: = = = = (). The base of the logarithm function used is of little importance in the present article, as long as it is greater than 1, but the natural logarithm with base e is the one most often used.
The resulting model is known as logistic regression (or multinomial logistic regression in the case that K-way rather than binary values are being predicted). For the Bernoulli and binomial distributions, the parameter is a single probability, indicating the likelihood of occurrence of a single event.
In null-hypothesis significance testing, the p-value [note 1] is the probability of obtaining test results at least as extreme as the result actually observed, under the assumption that the null hypothesis is correct. [2] [3] A very small p-value means that such an extreme observed outcome would be very unlikely under the null hypothesis.
In probability theory and statistics, the logistic distribution is a continuous probability distribution. Its cumulative distribution function is the logistic function, which appears in logistic regression and feedforward neural networks. It resembles the normal distribution in shape but has heavier tails (higher kurtosis).
Multinomial logistic regression is known by a variety of other names, including polytomous LR, [2] [3] multiclass LR, softmax regression, multinomial logit (mlogit), the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) classifier, and the conditional maximum entropy model.
The trade-off of variance-structure misspecification and consistent regression coefficient estimates is loss of efficiency, yielding inflated Wald test p-values as a result of higher variance of standard errors than that of the most optimal. [6]