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The 538 predictive model for the 2024 presidential election shows President Biden more likely to win than former President Trump — Biden’s best odds since May. The model’s Tuesday update ...
Trump-Biden 2024 Going into what proved to be a disastrous debate for Biden, Trump was favored at Betfair with -130 odds, compared to +200 for Biden. The day following the debate Biden's odd ...
Harris had been leading Trump according to bookmakers for about a month before Tuesday's vice presidential debate. According to realclearpolling.com, Harris now has a 49.4% chance to win November ...
Who is leading in the polls and favored by the odds? ABC News project 538 shows Harris leading in the national polls with 48.4% to Trump's 45.9% versus the very close Pennsylvania poll that has ...
Joe Biden Democratic. Elected President. ... Trump +6.5%: 538 [147] through November 4, 2024 ... Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs ...
3.2.3 Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein. ... Trump +4.0%: 538: through July 21, 2024 July 21, 2024 40.2% 43.5%: 8.7%
In the leadup to Biden's withdrawal, 538 was the only professional election forecaster to give Biden majority odds of winning the 2024 election. [93] Silver criticized Morris's model, describing it as at best ignoring the polls and giving Biden positive odds merely due to his incumbency, and at worst as being "buggy".
Based on 538’s latest analysis of presidential polls, Trump now has the barest advantage in the race, with a 52-in-100 chance to win. Two weeks ago, Harris had a 58-in-100 chance to win. Two ...