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Even with this outlook, I continue to see upside risks to inflation," Bowman said in comments to a group of New England business executives. "I would prefer that future adjustments to the policy ...
As Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, noted in a note on Monday, the minutes of the committee’s December meeting showed the Fed’s decision makers all agreed upside risk to inflation ...
“With inflation still well above the Committee’s longer-run goal and the labor market remaining tight, most participants continued to see significant upside risks to inflation, which could ...
Upside risk is calculated using data only from days when the benchmark (for example S&P 500 Index) has gone up. [1] Upside risk focuses on uncertain positive returns rather than negative returns. For this reason, upside risk, while a measure of unpredictability of the extent of gains, is not a “risk” in the sense of a possibility of adverse ...
“Beyond that, however, the growing risk that Trump will impose tariffs a little earlier than we are assuming presents an upside risk to inflation,” Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist ...
Morningstar projects an average inflation rate of 1.9% over 2025-28, adding 0.2% for the impact of additional tariffs, noting that full implementation of tariffs would result in another increase ...
“Beyond that, however, the growing risk that Trump will impose tariffs a little earlier than we are assuming presents an upside risk to inflation,” Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics, a forecasting firm, said in a written note.
We see AI-driven productivity adding an additional 30 bps to 2025 net margin for the S&P 500 (13.0% net margin in the base case) though we believe risk is skewed to the upside/our bull case in ...