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A major part of modern weather forecasting is the severe weather alerts and advisories that the national weather services issue in the case that severe or hazardous weather is expected. This is done to protect life and property. [92]
Articles on forecasting and analysis techniques, forecast verification studies, and case studies useful to forecasters. In addition, submissions that report on changes to the suite of operational numerical models and statistical post-processing techniques, and articles that demonstrate the transfer of research results to the forecasting community.
In project management, trend analysis is a mathematical technique that uses historical results to predict future outcome. This is achieved by tracking variances in cost and schedule performance. In this context, it is a project management quality control tool. [4] [5]
History of weather forecasting – prior to the invention of meteorological instruments, weather analysis and prediction relied on pattern recognition, which was not always reliable; History of surface weather analysis – initially used to study storm behavior, now used to explain current weather and as an aid in short term weather forecasting
The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model [1] (/ ˈ w ɔːr f /) is a numerical weather prediction (NWP) system designed to serve both atmospheric research and operational forecasting needs. NWP refers to the simulation and prediction of the atmosphere with a computer model, and WRF is a set of software for this.
Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. Later these can be compared with what actually happens. For example, a company might estimate their revenue in the next year, then compare it against the actual results creating a variance actual analysis.
Weather reconnaissance aircraft, such as this WP-3D Orion, provide data that is then used in numerical weather forecasts.. The atmosphere is a fluid.As such, the idea of numerical weather prediction is to sample the state of the fluid at a given time and use the equations of fluid dynamics and thermodynamics to estimate the state of the fluid at some time in the future.
One of the more significant aspects of hydrometeorology involves predictions about and attempts to mitigate the effects of high precipitation events. [2] There are three primary ways to model meteorological phenomena in weather forecasting, including nowcasting, numerical weather prediction, and statistical techniques. [3]