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A black swan (Cygnus atratus) in Australia. The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on a Latin expression which presumed that black swans did ...
Here are two black swans, but even with no black swans to possibly falsify it, "All swans are white" would still be shown falsifiable by "Here is a black swan"—a black swan would still be a state of affairs, only an imaginary one.
In inductive reasoning, one makes a series of observations and infers a claim based on them. For instance, from a series of observations that a woman walks her dog by the market at 8 am on Monday, it seems valid to infer that next Monday she will do the same, or that, in general, the woman walks her dog by the market every Monday.
BCA doubled-down on its recession call for 2025, previously predicting that US stocks could drop by as much as 26% this year.
A perfect storm led to Bayesian sinking, experts say. The combination of unlikely factors that could have contributed to the ship's fate constituted a "black swan event," Matthew Schanck, chairman ...
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a 2007 book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who is a former options trader. The book focuses on the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable outlier events—and the human tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events, retrospectively. Taleb calls this the Black Swan theory.
Still, Spitznagel—who's utilized Nassim Taleb, the statistician and academic who popularized the concept of the rare and unexpected event called a “black swan,” as a “distinguished ...
The ludic fallacy, proposed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book The Black Swan , is "the misuse of games to model real-life situations". [1] Taleb explains the fallacy as "basing studies of chance on the narrow world of games and dice". [2] The adjective ludic originates from the Latin noun ludus, meaning "play, game, sport, pastime". [3]