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According to 538's analysis of polls conducted in competitive states* in which over 95 percent of the expected vote was counted as of Nov. 8 at 6 a.m. Eastern, the average poll conducted over the ...
The 1880, 1884 and 1888 elections also stood on the razor’s edge, with New York serving as the tipping-point state in each at a time when it was the country’s most populous state. And in 1916 ...
The 2022 New York gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of New York. Kathy Hochul ascended to the governorship in August 2021, upon Andrew Cuomo 's resignation following allegations of sexual harassment .
Pollsters caution against assuming that the polls this cycle are susceptible to the same errors as previous ones that underestimated support for former President Trump, arguing that every election ...
Poll results can be affected by methodology, especially in how they predict who will vote in the next election, and re-weighting answers to compensate for slightly non-random samples. One technique, "weighting on recalled vote" is an attempt to compensate for previous underestimates of votes for Donald Trump by rebalancing the sample based on ...
The UK election was the first time the FiveThirtyEight team did an election night 'liveblog' of a non-U.S. election. [538 37] In April 2010, The Guardian published Silver's predictions for the 2010 United Kingdom General Election. The majority of polling organisations in the UK use the concept of uniform swing to predict the outcome of elections.
Two weeks ago, 538's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former President Donald Trump on Nov. 5. You might be tempted to ...
Although the candidates for lieutenant governor have always run on tickets with the governor's candidates, until the election of 1950 they were elected on separate ballots, so on several occasions (1826, 1846, 1850, 1906, and 1924) the governor and his lieutenant were elected of opposing tickets.