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Two weeks ago, 538's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former President Donald Trump on Nov. 5. You might be tempted to ...
Looking at 538’s forecast, the most likely tipping-point state across all scenarios for the 2024 election is Pennsylvania. In 18 out of 100 cases, the Keystone State provides the winning ...
See live updates of California election results from the 2024 election, including Senate and House races, state elections and ballot initiatives.
In the election Harris indeed carried California by just over 20 points with more than 9.2 million votes. Nevertheless, her margin was noticeably smaller than Joe Biden 's 29-point win in 2020 , a trend observed in other blue states such as Massachusetts , New York and Illinois , all of which witnessed a decline in Democratic voter turnout. [ 4 ]
Elections analysts and political pundits issue probabilistic forecasts to give readers a sense of how probable various electoral outcomes are. These forecasts use a variety of factors to determine the likelihood of each candidate winning each state. Most election predictors use the following ratings: "tossup": no advantage
Trump — who was rejected by a majority of Americans in 2020 during his re-election campaign after winning an unprecedented race in 2016 — flipped every swing state that incumbent President Joe ...
At 538, Morris developed a new election forecasting model of the 2024 election. In the leadup to Biden's withdrawal, 538 was the only professional election forecaster to give Biden majority odds of winning the 2024 election. [93]
On Tuesday, 538 released its 2024 election forecast for the House of Representatives. The general idea behind our forecast is to combine polling data (say, on which party Americans want to control ...