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ECMWF's operational forecasts are produced from its "Integrated Forecast System" (sometimes informally known in the United States as the "European model") which is run every twelve hours and forecasts out to ten days. It includes both a "deterministic forecast" mode and an ensemble. The deterministic forecast is a single model run that is ...
The ensemble forecast is usually evaluated by comparing the ensemble average of the individual forecasts for one forecast variable to the observed value of that variable (the "error"). This is combined with consideration of the degree of agreement between various forecasts within the ensemble system, as represented by their overall standard ...
Starting in 1992 with ensemble forecasts prepared by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, model ensemble forecasts have been used to help define the forecast uncertainty and to extend the window in which numerical weather forecasting is viable farther into the ...
The North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) is a joint project involving the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) in Canada, the National Weather Service (NWS) in the United States, and the National Meteorological Service of Mexico (NMSM) in Mexico providing numerical weather prediction ensemble guidance for the 1- to 16-day forecast period. [1]
The 51-member ensemble system "ENS" is also run every twelve hours out to 15 days and every 06Z/18Z out to 6 days with a horizontal resolution of 18 km and 137 layers in the vertical. The ECMWF also runs a coarser version of the IFS out 45 days; this version is run weekly, with output in five-day intervals.
The ensemble variant of the GEM is known as the Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS). It has 20 members (plus control) and runs out 16 days, the same range as the American global forecast system. The GEPS runs alongside the GFS ensemble to form the North American Ensemble Forecast System. A regional ensemble prediction system (REPS ...
The ECMWF model, the Ensemble Prediction System, [85] uses singular vectors to simulate the initial probability density, while the NCEP ensemble, the Global Ensemble Forecasting System, uses a technique known as vector breeding. [86] [87]
More recently, hybrid combinations of ensemble approaches and variational methods have become more popular (e.g. they are used for operational forecasts both at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and at the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP).