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Guidance on stochastic modelling for life insurance reserving (pdf) J Li's article on stochastic reserving from the Australian Actuarial Journal, 2006 (pdf) Stochastic Modelling For Dummies, Actuarial Society of South Africa
Another example is the use of actuarial models to assess the risk of sex offense recidivism. Actuarial models and associated tables, such as the MnSOST-R, Static-99, and SORAG, have been used since the late 1990s to determine the likelihood that a sex offender will re-offend and thus whether he or she should be institutionalized or set free. [9]
The output of a cat model is an estimate of the losses that the model predicts would be associated with a particular event or set of events. When running a probabilistic model , the output is either a probabilistic loss distribution or a set of events that could be used to create a loss distribution; probable maximum losses ("PMLs") and average ...
In actuarial science and applied probability, ruin theory (sometimes risk theory [1] or collective risk theory) uses mathematical models to describe an insurer's vulnerability to insolvency/ruin. In such models key quantities of interest are the probability of ruin, distribution of surplus immediately prior to ruin and deficit at time of ruin.
Actuarial credibility describes an approach used by actuaries to improve statistical estimates. Although the approach can be formulated in either a frequentist or Bayesian statistical setting, the latter is often preferred because of the ease of recognizing more than one source of randomness through both "sampling" and "prior" information.
The chain-ladder or development [1] method is a prominent [2] [3] actuarial loss reserving technique. The chain-ladder method is used in both the property and casualty [1] [4] and health insurance [5] fields. Its intent is to estimate incurred but not reported claims and project ultimate loss amounts. [5]
The model is mainly in use for actuarial work and asset liability management. Because of the stochastic properties of that model it is mainly combined with Monte Carlo methods. Wilkie first proposed the model in 1986, in a paper published in the Transactions of the Faculty of Actuaries. [1] It has since been the subject of extensive study and ...
The Bornhuetter–Ferguson method was introduced in the 1972 paper "The Actuary and IBNR", co-authored by Ron Bornhuetter and Ron Ferguson. [4] [5] [7] [8]Like other loss reserving techniques, the Bornhuetter–Ferguson method aims to estimate incurred but not reported insurance claim amounts.