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Overall, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research forecasts Brent could average $80/bbl in the fourth quarter of 2024 and $75/bbl in 2025, declining to the low $60s by end-2025. Against a backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions and heightened market volatility, crude oil prices have soared in recent weeks.
Global oil demand is expected to grow by just under 900 kb/d in 2024 and by around 1 mb/d in 2025, significantly lower than the 2 mb/d seen in 2023. Chinese oil demand is particularly weak, with consumption dropping by 500 kb/d y-o-y in August – its fourth consecutive month of declines.
We expect the Brent crude oil price will average $82 per barrel (b) in 2024 and $79/b in 2025, close to the 2023 average of $82/b. Our forecast for relatively little price change is based on expectations that global supply and demand of petroleum liquids will be relatively balanced.
Crude oil prices. We reduced our forecast for the Brent crude oil spot price through the end of next year. In this month’s outlook, we expect the Brent price will average $78 per barrel (b) in 2025, $7/b less than we expected in last month’s STEO.
We forecast higher crude oil prices in the second half of 2023 and into 2024 in our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) because of moderate but persistent inventory drawdowns. Inventory drawdowns take place when demand for a commodity is greater than the supply of that commodity.
Brent crude oil futures have plunged from a high of more than $82/bbl in early August to a near three-year low at just below $70/bbl on 11 September, despite hefty supply losses in Libya and continued crude oil inventory draws. Global oil demand growth is slowing sharply from its post-pandemic rates, as already forecast in the OMR for some time.
Global refinery throughputs are forecast to increase by 840 kb/d to 83.3 mb/d in 2024, and by 600 kb/d to 83.9 mb/d next year. Margin weakness continues to weigh on processing rates, with Chinese runs now expected to decline y-o-y.
Most 2024 oil price forecasts, though, have coalesced in the $90-per-barrel range. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts prices for Brent crude, the global...
The EIA now sees U.S. petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption averaging 20.5 million barrels per day in 2024—that’s up from the agency’s forecast in July of 20.4 million bpd.
The picture for the oil market's longer-term outlook under a new Trump presidency is, well, decidedly mixed.