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The Sydney Opera House was expected to be completed in 1963. A scaled-down version opened in 1973, a decade later. The original cost was estimated at $7 million, but its delayed completion led to a cost of $102 million. [10] The Eurofighter Typhoon defense project took six years longer than expected, with an overrun cost of 8 billion euros. [10]
Hofstadter's law is a self-referential adage, coined by Douglas Hofstadter in his book Gödel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid (1979) to describe the widely experienced difficulty of accurately estimating the time it will take to complete tasks of substantial complexity: [1] [2]
Illusory truth effect (Illusion-of-truth effect) People are more likely to identify as true statements those they have previously heard (even if they cannot consciously remember having heard them), regardless of the actual validity of the statement. In other words, a person is more likely to believe a familiar statement than an unfamiliar one.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that it will likely take longer to cut rates, saying it will take 'longer than expected' to achieve the confidence needed to get inflation down to the central bank ...
"The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence and instead indicate that it's likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence," Powell said Tuesday while speaking at ...
But the changes to 2024, 2025, and the first look at 2026 offered even more clues about where the central bank sees things headed. Since offering these forecasts in June, the central bank took ...
Intelligence analysts "would rather use words than numbers to describe how confident we are in our analysis," a senior CIA officer who's served for more than 20 years told me. Moreover, "most consumers of intelligence aren't particularly sophisticated when it comes to probabilistic analysis. They like words and pictures, too.
Thus, the Lindy effect proposes the longer a period something has survived to exist or be used in the present, the longer its remaining life expectancy. Longevity implies a resistance to change, obsolescence, or competition, and greater odds of continued existence into the future. [2] Where the Lindy effect applies, mortality rate decreases ...