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Swanson's law–stating that solar module prices have dropped about 20% for each doubling of installed capacity—defines the "learning rate" of solar photovoltaics. [1] [2] Swanson's law is the observation that the price of solar photovoltaic modules tends to drop 20 percent for every doubling of cumulative shipped volume. At present rates ...
The cost of a solar PV module make up the largest part of the total investment costs. As per the recent analysis of Solar Power Generation Costs in Japan 2021, module unit prices fell sharply. In 2018, the average price was close to 60,000 yen/kW, but by 2021 it is estimated at 30,000 yen/kW, so cost is reduced by almost half.
Module and cell prices declined even further after 2014 (see price quotes in table). This price trend was seen as evidence supporting Swanson's law (an observation similar to the famous Moore's Law) that states that the per-watt cost of solar cells and panels fall by 20 percent for every doubling of cumulative photovoltaic production. [44]
Note that the prices mentioned above are for bare modules, another way of looking at module prices is to include installation costs. In the US, according to the Solar Energy Industries Association, the price of installed rooftop PV modules for homeowners fell from $9.00/W in 2006 to $5.46/W in 2011.
This was driven first by the falling price of quality silicon, [170] [171] [172] and later simply by the globally plunging cost of photovoltaic modules. [ 166 ] [ 173 ] In 2018, the U.S. added 10.8GW of installed solar photovoltaic energy, an increase of 21%.
As the LCOE of solar PV is dominated by the capital costs, and the capital costs by the panels, the wholesale prices of PV modules are the main consideration when tracking grid parity. A 2015 study shows price/kWh dropping by 10% per year since 1980, and predicts that solar could contribute 20% of total electricity consumption by 2030, whereas ...
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