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Statistical Football prediction is a method used in sports betting, to predict the outcome of football matches by means of statistical tools. The goal of statistical match prediction is to outperform the predictions of bookmakers [ citation needed ] [ dubious – discuss ] , who use them to set odds on the outcome of football matches.
A skill score for a given underlying score is an offset and (negatively-) scaled variant of the underlying score such that a skill score value of zero means that the score for the predictions is merely as good as that of a set of baseline or reference or default predictions, while a skill score value of one (100%) represents the best possible ...
Example of the optimal Kelly betting fraction, versus expected return of other fractional bets. In probability theory, the Kelly criterion (or Kelly strategy or Kelly bet) is a formula for sizing a sequence of bets by maximizing the long-term expected value of the logarithm of wealth, which is equivalent to maximizing the long-term expected geometric growth rate.
ME-1 1 D+8 +14.81% D +23.09% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Safe D Solid D — Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Safe D Solid D ME-2 1 R+2 +10.29% R (flip) +7.44% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Likely R Tossup — Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Maryland 10 D+12 +26.42% D +33.21% D Solid D Solid D Safe D ...