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The cumulative impact probability was estimated to be around 0.004%, a risk lower than that of asteroid 2004 VD 17, which once again became (temporarily) the greatest-risk object. A 2053 approach to Earth still posed a minor risk of impact, and Apophis was still rated at level one on the Torino scale for this orbit. 2004-12-28: 12:23 GMT
In a bit of ominous news befitting a Friday the 13th: It turns out that the asteroid Apophis could have a very small chance of colliding into Earth in five years, when it is expected to make a ...
The 2013 Chelyabinsk meteor had a total kinetic energy prior to impact of about 0.5 megatons, thus, regardless of impact probability, it would only rate 0 on the Torino scale. Between 2000 and 2013, 26 atmospheric asteroid impacts with an energy of 1–600 kilotons were detected by the network of infrasound sensors operated by the Preparatory ...
A similar scenario unfolded in 2004 with Apophis, an asteroid initially projected to have a 2.7 percent chance of striking Earth in 2029. Further observations ruled out an impact. "City killer ...
Yes, the asteroid has little more than a 1% probability of slamming into Earth in 2032. And yes, that makes it the only one of more-than 37,000 known large space rocks near Earth with such odds.
Currently, no impacts are predicted (the single highest probability impact currently listed is ~7 m asteroid 2010 RF 12, which is due to pass Earth in September 2095 with only a 10% predicted chance of impacting; its size is also small enough that any damage from an impact would be minimal). [71] [72]
A big one, though, can wreak havoc far beyond its initial impact site. The massive Chicxulub asteroid that 66 million years ago slammed into what is now the Yucatán peninsula in Mexico released ...
[25] [88] The then-calculated 1 in 300 maximum chance of impact and +0.17 Palermo scale value was roughly 50% greater than the background risk of impact by all similarly large objects until 2880. [88] [89] After additional radar [90] and optical observations, as of January 2025, the probability of this impact is assessed at 1 in 2,600. [82]