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Specifically, rolling return calculations measure how a stock, mutual fund or other security performs each day, week or month from the time frame’s beginning to ending dates.
Smoothing of a noisy sine (blue curve) with a moving average (red curve). In statistics, a moving average (rolling average or running average or moving mean [1] or rolling mean) is a calculation to analyze data points by creating a series of averages of different selections of the full data set.
Average true range (ATR) is a technical analysis volatility indicator originally developed by J. Welles Wilder, Jr. for commodities. [ 1 ] [ 2 ] The indicator does not provide an indication of price trend , simply the degree of price volatility. [ 3 ]
Exponential smoothing or exponential moving average (EMA) is a rule of thumb technique for smoothing time series data using the exponential window function. Whereas in the simple moving average the past observations are weighted equally, exponential functions are used to assign exponentially decreasing weights over time. It is an easily learned ...
ARMA is appropriate when a system is a function of a series of unobserved shocks (the MA or moving average part) as well as its own behavior. For example, stock prices may be shocked by fundamental information as well as exhibiting technical trending and mean-reversion effects due to market participants. [citation needed]
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Example of historical stock price data (top half) with the typical presentation of a MACD(12,26,9) indicator (bottom half). The blue line is the MACD series proper, the difference between the 12-day and 26-day EMAs of the price. The red line is the average or signal series, a 9-day EMA of the MACD series.
According to economist Robert J. Shiller, real earnings per share grew at a 3.5% annualized rate over 150 years. [2] Since 1980, the most bullish period in U.S. stock market history, real earnings growth according to Shiller, has been 2.6%.