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The Phillips curve is an economic model, named after Bill Phillips, that correlates reduced unemployment with increasing wages in an economy. [1] While Phillips did not directly link employment and inflation , this was a trivial deduction from his statistical findings.
Alban William Housego "A. W." "Bill" Phillips, MBE (18 November 1914 – 4 March 1975) [1] was a New Zealand economist who spent most of his academic career as a professor of economics at the London School of Economics (LSE). He invented the Phillips curve relating level of employment and inflation in 1958.
The model states that economic output is a function of money or price "surprise". The model accounts for the empirically based trade off between output and prices represented by the Phillips curve, but the function breaks from the Phillips curve since only unanticipated price level changes lead to changes in output. [1]
The New Keynesian Phillips curve was originally derived by Roberts in 1995, [48] and has since been used in most state-of-the-art New Keynesian DSGE models. [49] The new Keynesian Phillips curve says that this period's inflation depends on current output and the expectations of next period's inflation.
The Phillips curve appeared to reflect a clear, inverse relationship between inflation and output. The curve broke down in the 1970s as economies suffered simultaneous economic stagnation and inflation known as stagflation. The empirical implosion of the Phillips curve followed attacks mounted on theoretical grounds by Friedman and Edmund ...
It tells economists, primarily, how not to do economic analyses. The Lucas critique suggests that if we want to predict the effect of a policy experiment, we should model the "deep parameters" (relating to preferences , technology , and resource constraints ) that are assumed to govern individual behavior: so-called " microfoundations ."
The Lucas islands model is an economic model of the link between money supply and price and output changes in a simplified economy using rational expectations. It delivered a new classical explanation of the Phillips curve relationship between unemployment and inflation. The model was formulated by Robert Lucas, Jr. in a series of papers in the ...
[1] [8] Along with his research on the Phillips curve, Phelps also collaborated with other economists on research regarding economic growth, the effects of monetary and fiscal policy, and optimal population growth.