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The Phillips curve is an economic model, named after Bill Phillips, that correlates reduced unemployment with increasing wages in an economy. [1] While Phillips did not directly link employment and inflation , this was a trivial deduction from his statistical findings.
This exhibits a Phillips curve relationship, as inflation is positively related with output (i.e. inflation is negatively related with unemployment). However, and this is the point, the existence of a short-run Phillips curve does not make the central bank capable of exploiting this relationship in a systematic way.
Milton Friedman argued that a natural rate of inflation followed from the Phillips curve.This showed wages tend to rise when unemployment is low. Friedman argued that inflation was the same as wage rises, and built his argument upon a widely believed idea, that a stable negative relation between inflation and unemployment existed. [11]
The Phillips curve can be written of terms of rate of growth of prices and unemployment. It was subject to the study of several Keynesian and neoclassical economists, especially in the context of the monetarist model by Milton Friedman and the new neoclassical macroeconomics by Robert Lucas.
Before current levels of world trade were developed, unemployment was shown to reduce inflation, following the Phillips curve, or to decelerate inflation, following the NAIRU/natural rate of unemployment theory since it is relatively easy to seek a new job without losing a current job. When more jobs are available for fewer workers (lower ...
The book further popularized his "expectations-augmented Phillips curve" and introduced the concept of hysteresis with regard to unemployment (prolonged unemployment is partially irreversible as workers lose skill and become demoralized).
One important application of the critique (independent of proposed microfoundations) is its implication that the historical negative correlation between inflation and unemployment, known as the Phillips curve, could break down if the monetary authorities attempted to exploit it.
The New Keynesian Phillips curve was originally derived by Roberts in 1995, [48] and has since been used in most state-of-the-art New Keynesian DSGE models. [49] The new Keynesian Phillips curve says that this period's inflation depends on current output and the expectations of next period's inflation.