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When using the Exit Multiple approach it is often helpful to calculate the implied terminal growth rate, because a multiple that may appear reasonable at first glance can actually imply a terminal growth rate that is unrealistic. In practice, academics tend to use the Perpetuity Growth Model, while investment bankers favor the Exit Multiple ...
MedICT has chosen the perpetuity growth model to calculate the value of cash flows beyond the forecast period. They estimate that they will grow at about 6% for the rest of these years (this is extremely prudent given that they grew by 78% in year 5), and they assume a forward discount rate of 15% for beyond year 5. The terminal value is hence:
The sustainable growth rate is the growth rate in profits that a company can reasonably achieve, consistent with its established financial policy.Relatedly, an assumption re the company's sustainable growth rate is a required input to several valuation models — for instance the Gordon model and other discounted cash flow models — where this is used in the calculation of continuing or ...
A valuation multiple [1] is simply an expression of market value of an asset relative to a key statistic that is assumed to relate to that value. To be useful, that statistic – whether earnings, cash flow or some other measure – must bear a logical relationship to the market value observed; to be seen, in fact, as the driver of that market value.
The time-weighted return (TWR) [1] [2] is a method of calculating investment return, where returns over sub-periods are compounded together, with each sub-period weighted according to its duration. The time-weighted method differs from other methods of calculating investment return, in the particular way it compensates for external flows.
Suppose a stock costing $100 pays a 4% dividend, grows at a terminal rate of 6.5% and has a discount rate of 7.9%. The price/dividend first estimate of 25 years is easily calculated. If we assume an additional 33% duration to account for the discounted value of future dividend payments, that yields a duration of 33.3 years.
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This rate, which acts like an interest rate on future Cash inflows, is used to convert them into current dollar equivalents. Terminal Value: The value of a business at the end of the projection period (typical for a DCF analysis is either a 5-year projection period or, occasionally, a 10-year projection period).