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Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions is a 2008 book by Dan Ariely, in which he challenges readers' assumptions about making decisions based on rational thought. Ariely explains, "My goal, by the end of this book, is to help you fundamentally rethink what makes you and the people around you tick.
The tendency to judge a decision by its eventual outcome instead of the quality of the decision at the time it was made. Pessimism bias: The tendency for some people, especially those with depression, to overestimate the likelihood of negative things happening to them. (compare optimism bias) Present bias
An example water jar puzzle. The water jar test, first described in Abraham S. Luchins' 1942 classic experiment, [1] is a commonly cited example of an Einstellung situation. . The experiment's participants were given the following problem: there are 3 water jars, each with the capacity to hold a different, fixed amount of water; the subject must figure out how to measure a certain amount of ...
Cognitive bias mitigation is the prevention and reduction of the negative effects of cognitive biases – unconscious, automatic influences on human judgment and decision making that reliably produce reasoning errors. Coherent, comprehensive theories of cognitive bias mitigation are lacking.
A continually evolving list of cognitive biases has been identified over the last six decades of research on human judgment and decision-making in cognitive science, social psychology, and behavioral economics. The study of cognitive biases has practical implications for areas including clinical judgment, entrepreneurship, finance, and management.
In decision making and psychology, decision fatigue refers to the deteriorating quality of decisions made by an individual after a long session of decision making. [1] [2] It is now understood as one of the causes of irrational trade-offs in decision making. [2] Decision fatigue may also lead to consumers making poor choices with their purchases.
Due to the greater impact of seeing a shark, the availability heuristic can influence the probability judgement of the ratio of sharks and dolphins in the water. Thus, an individual who saw both a shark and a dolphin would assume a higher ratio of sharks in the water, even if there are more dolphins in reality. [31]
The extent to which cognitive bias is mitigated by using these systems was the overarching question in this study. While the independent variable was the use of the BI system, the dependent variable was the outcome of the decision-making process. The subjects were presented with a 'plausible' anchor and a 'spurious' anchor in a forecasting ...