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In macroeconomics, the Sahm rule, or Sahm rule recession indicator, is a heuristic measure by the United States' Federal Reserve for determining when an economy has entered a recession. [1] It is useful in real-time evaluation of the business cycle and relies on monthly unemployment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
A new indicator says there's a 40% chance the US is in a recession that started as early as March. The measure builds on the Sahm rule, using job-vacancy data in addition to unemployment data.
This recession indicator isn't influenced by participation rates and has an equally impressive track record as the Sahm rule going back to the early 1970s. Kantro's 10% recession rule, created by Michael Kantrowitz, CIO of Piper Sandler, measures the year-over-year growth in unemployed persons in the U.S. workforce.
The U.S. unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1% in June from 4% in the prior month, nearly triggering a reliable recession indicator. While unemployment is still historically low, its rate of ...
A weak July jobs report just triggered one of the most well-known, and historically accurate, recession indicators: the Sahm Rule.But the rule’s inventor, Claudia Sahm, pushed back against the ...
Another recession indicator is close to flashing red. The Sahm Rule, developed by economist Claudia Sahm, says that the US economy has entered a recession if the three-month average of the ...