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The Storm Prediction Center issues convective outlooks (AC), consisting of categorical and probabilistic forecasts describing the general threat of severe convective storms over the contiguous United States for the next six to 192 hours (Day 1 through Day 8). These outlooks are labeled and issued by day, and are issued up to five times per day ...
A small high-risk area was issued at the 2000Z outlook that included the cities of Little Rock, Camden, and Danville for a 30% probability of significant tornadoes. An EF4 tornado were confirmed in the risk area before the high risk was discontinued in a special outlook update at 0230Z. The outlook period as a whole produced 18 tornadoes. [286]
High risk convective outlook issued by the Storm Prediction center at 13:00 UTC on May 6. Starting April 30, the Storm Prediction Center noted that certain models, including the ECMWF, forecasted a multi-day period of high instability and supportive wind shear across the Southern and Central Plains, [10] and by May 1, a 15% risk was added across Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and northern Texas. [11]
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center releases daily convective outlooks highlighting the areas with the greatest potential for severe thunderstorms.
SPC's Day 1 convective outlook for May 16, 2024, issued at 2000Z, indicating an enhanced risk for severe weather from southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana.. On May 14, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) outlined a level 2/Slight risk for severe weather across portions of central and northern Texas. [11]
High risk convective outlook issued by the Storm Prediction center at 13:00 UTC on May 6. At 1630Z on May 6, 2024, the Storm Prediction Center, noting severe activity in Tennessee as well as confidence in cells further south within Oklahoma, issued a new convective outlook, which expanded the high-risk area further south, the moderate risk further east, and added a marginal risk over the ...
The Storm Prediction Center's Day 1 convective outlook for May 21, 2024, issued at 1300Z, indicating a moderate risk for severe weather over much of Iowa and nearby parts of Wisconsin, Illinois, Missouri, and southeastern Minnesota.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issues Day 1, Day 2, and Day 3 Convective Outlooks depicting forecast areas of general (non-severe) and severe thunderstorm threats across the contiguous United States, along with a text narrative discussion consisting of a plain-language summary of the threat type(s) and timing focused on areas of highest risk ...