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The Global Challenges Foundation's 2016 annual report estimates an annual probability of human extinction of at least 0.05% per year (equivalent to 5% per century, on average). [30] A 2016 survey of AI experts found a median estimate of 5% that human-level AI would cause an outcome that was "extremely bad (e.g. human extinction)". [31]
By this time it is estimated that a gamma ray burst, or massive, hyperenergetic supernova, would have occurred within 6,500 light-years of Earth; close enough for its rays to affect Earth's ozone layer and potentially trigger a mass extinction, assuming the hypothesis is correct that a previous such explosion triggered the Ordovician–Silurian ...
Extinction Date Probable causes [2] Quaternary: Holocene extinction: c. 10,000 BC – Ongoing: Humans [3] Quaternary extinction event: 640,000, 74,000, and 13,000 years ago: Unknown; may include climate changes, massive volcanic eruptions and Humans (largely by human overhunting) [4] [5] [6] Neogene: Pliocene–Pleistocene boundary extinction: 2 Ma
This is much faster than the expected “background” extinction rate, or the rate at which species would naturally die off without outside influence — in the absence of human beings, these 73 ...
The estimated time for full recovery of biodiversity after a potential Holocene extinction, if it were on the scale of the five previous major extinction events. [ 52 ] Even without a mass extinction, by this time most current species will have disappeared through the background extinction rate , with many clades gradually evolving into new forms.
More significantly, the current rate of global species extinctions is estimated as 100 to 1,000 times "background" rates (the average extinction rates in the evolutionary time scale of planet Earth), [71] [72] faster than at any other time in human history, [73] [74] while future rates are likely 10,000 times higher. [72]
Estimated extinction rates among genera through time. From Foote (2007), top, and Kocsis et al. (2019), bottom ... coinciding in time with the early human migrations ...
Normal extinction rates are often used as a comparison to present day extinction rates, to illustrate the higher frequency of extinction today than in all periods of non-extinction events before it. [1] Background extinction rates have not remained constant, although changes are measured over geological time, covering millions of years. [2] [3] [4]