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A black swan (Cygnus atratus) in Australia. The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on a Latin expression which presumed that black swans did ...
BCA doubled-down on its recession call for 2025, previously predicting that US stocks could drop by as much as 26% this year.
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a 2007 book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who is a former options trader. The book focuses on the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable outlier events—and the human tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events, retrospectively. Taleb calls this the Black Swan theory.
Black swan events, and the chaos and tragedies they can lead to, cannot be eliminated completely, but they should be rare events. We must take steps to address issues with our infrastructure and ...
The undercover revelations in Amira’s office made her the ultimate “black swan,” a term used to describe an unpredictable event that changes the way we view the world.
In inductive reasoning, one makes a series of observations and infers a claim based on them. For instance, from a series of observations that a woman walks her dog by the market at 8 am on Monday, it seems valid to infer that next Monday she will do the same, or that, in general, the woman walks her dog by the market every Monday.
Was it a 'black swan event'? Cybele Mayes-Osterman, USA TODAY. Updated August 21, 2024 at 5:32 PM. The Bayesian set off on a leisurely cruise around Italy's southern coast on a sunny day in late July.
I think this is a description of a "Black Swan event" - I do not understand what the "Black Swan theory" claim is true, and what predicitions this theory makes. Perhaps a better notion is the "Black swan thinking", which claims that current economic theory underestimates the impact of "Black Swan events". Ulner 22:01, 4 June 2009 (UTC)