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Local regression of two-way polling between Trump, Biden and Kennedy conducted up to the 2024 United States presidential election (excludes others and undecided). The dashed line marks Biden's withdrawal from the race.
FiveThirtyEight average: Trump +1.8. 270 to Win average: Trump +1.2. Real Clear Polling average: Trump +0.9. Michigan (15 electoral votes) FiveThirtyEight average: Harris +0.6. 270 to Win average ...
This first look at a potential Biden vs. Trump rematch – and the electoral math each would need to capture 270 electoral votes – captures the dynamics at play 10 months from Election Day.
MORE: Video How Harris or Trump could win 270 electoral votes. If polls are understating Trump's lead, he could have the advantage by winning Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina, giving ...
The following graph depicts the standing of each candidate in the poll aggregators from September 2019 to November 2020. Former Vice President Joe Biden, the Democratic nominee, had an average polling lead of 7.9 percentage points over incumbent President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee.
Biden carried five states won by Trump in 2016: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. He also became the first Democrat since 2008 to carry Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, winning one electoral vote from the state. Trump did not win any states won by Clinton in 2016.
Trump is 2.8 points behind his own 2020 performance while Biden misses the mark by 3.4 points. Biden’s best state is also his least bad state. It may sound tautological, but it points to a key ...
Source of poll aggregation Dates administered Dates updated Joe Biden Democratic Donald Trump Republican Other/ Undecided [a] Margin 270 to Win [34] October 22 – November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 49.4%: 45.7% 4.9% Biden +3.7: Real Clear Politics [35] October 29 – November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 48.7%: 47.5% 3.8% Biden +1.2 ...