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The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a 2007 book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who is a former options trader. The book focuses on the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable outlier events—and the human tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events, retrospectively. Taleb calls this the Black Swan theory.
A black swan (Cygnus atratus) in Australia. The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on a Latin expression which presumed that black swans did ...
The ludic fallacy, proposed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book The Black Swan , is "the misuse of games to model real-life situations". [1] Taleb explains the fallacy as "basing studies of chance on the narrow world of games and dice". [2] The adjective ludic originates from the Latin noun ludus, meaning "play, game, sport, pastime". [3]
(Bloomberg Opinion) -- The recent Twitter spat between “Black Swan” author Nassim Nicholas Taleb and quant investing pioneer Cliff Asness over hedging against highly remote events reminded me ...
Nassim Nicholas Taleb doesn't want everyone to think he's predicting a bout of hyper-inflation for the U.S. economy, contrary to a much-discussed Wall Street Journal article earlier this week.One ...
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the author of best-selling book The Black Swan, correctly predicted the 2008 financial crash but said "gloomy" times ahead for the U.S. economy are far more easy to spot.
Taleb criticized risk management methods used by the finance industry and warned about financial crises, subsequently profiting from the Black Monday (1987) and the 2007–2008 financial crisis. [6] He advocates what he calls a "black swan robust" society, meaning a society that can withstand difficult-to-predict events. [7]
Years of US interest rates sitting at zero have damaged the world's largest economy and created speculative bubbles such as bitcoin, "The Black Swan" author Nassim Nicholas Taleb told CNBC on ...