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Wishful-thinking effects, in which people overestimate the likelihood of an event because of its desirability, are relatively rare. [10] This may be in part because people engage in more defensive pessimism in advance of important outcomes, [11] in an attempt to reduce the disappointment that follows overly optimistic predictions. [12]
For illusory superiority to be demonstrated by social comparison, two logical hurdles have to be overcome. One is the ambiguity of the word "average". It is logically possible for nearly all of the set to be above the mean if the distribution of abilities is highly skewed. For example, the mean number of legs per human being is slightly lower ...
Optimism bias is typically measured through two determinants of risk: absolute risk, where individuals are asked to estimate their likelihood of experiencing a negative event compared to their actual chance of experiencing a negative event (comparison against self), and comparative risk, where individuals are asked to estimate the likelihood of experiencing a negative event (their personal ...
“Confidence is the duct tape of communication — it can patch over a lot of holes, at least temporarily,” Dr. Gerharz shared. “Speak boldly enough, and people might just overlook the fact ...
Social media is a platform for individuals to post whatever content or media they desire. In some cases, one may project a positive outlook on social media to avoid reality. Such excessive signs of toxic positivity can eventually lead to an identity shift toward the "process of self-transformation that is the result of intentional self ...
And now, in all areas of my life — work, travel, social, family — I have a mental toolbox at the ready, a new appreciation for going with the flow, and a commitment to turning the page. I’d ...
There are several potential risks that may arise if people hold positive illusions about their personal qualities and likely outcomes. First of all, they might set themselves up for unpleasant surprises for which they are ill-prepared when their overly optimistic beliefs are disconfirmed. They may also have to tackle the consequences thereafter.
There are plenty of examples of overly confident experts leading followers astray. Think back to the 1998 implosion of Long-Term Capital Management , a hedge fund run by several Nobel Prize winners.