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Meanwhile, Polymarket shows Trump has a 54% chance of winning the presidential election with Harris trailing behind at just a 45.3% chance. PredictIt’s markets are a little closer.
Her odds of becoming the next president have jumped from 18% to 29% on Polymarket, and up from 27% to 40% on PredictIt. FiveThirtyEight’s approval poll show a 50% disapproval rating for the vice ...
According to his calculations, Polymarket has the smallest margin of inefficiency at 1.33% compared to 11.08% for PredictIt. PredictIt has a 10% commission on profitable trades and also some ...
For free market purists, the success of betting sites like Polymarket, Kalshi and PredictIt isn’t surprising at all. The basic theory behind prediction markets is that a lot of people with money ...
Prediction markets can be more accurate than polling when it comes to elections, a professor told Business Insider. There's over $606 million wagered on the 2024 election on Polymarket, favoring a ...
Trump started showing a solid lead on betting markets like Polymarket, PredictIt, and Kalshi in mid-October, and those odds mostly rose in the weeks before Election Day.
Polymarket did not respond to Fortune’s request for an interview. That isn’t to say prediction markets are always right. In 2016, PredictIt bettors notched Hillary Clinton at an 80% chance of ...
Polymarket, built on the Polygon blockchain, has seen rapid growth this election cycle. Its total value locked (TVL) surged from $9.5 million in stablecoins at the start of the year to $220 million.