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Weather reconnaissance aircraft, such as this WP-3D Orion, provide data that is then used in numerical weather forecasts.. The atmosphere is a fluid.As such, the idea of numerical weather prediction is to sample the state of the fluid at a given time and use the equations of fluid dynamics and thermodynamics to estimate the state of the fluid at some time in the future.
The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model [1] (/ ˈ w ɔːr f /) is a numerical weather prediction (NWP) system designed to serve both atmospheric research and operational forecasting needs. NWP refers to the simulation and prediction of the atmosphere with a computer model, and WRF is a set of software for this.
Along with the NWS's Global Forecast System (GFS), which runs out to 16 days, the ECMWF's Integrated Forecast System (IFS), which runs out 10 days, the Naval Research Laboratory Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM), which runs out eight days, the UK Met Office's Unified Model, which runs out to seven days, and Deutscher Wetterdienst's ICON ...
The global models are run at varying times into the future. The Met Office's Unified Model is run six days into the future, [55] the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model is run out to 10 days into the future, [56] while the Global Forecast System model run by the Environmental Modeling Center is run 16 days into the future. [57]
In weather forecasting, model output statistics (MOS) is a multiple linear regression technique in which predictands, often near-surface quantities (such as two-meter-above-ground-level air temperature, horizontal visibility, and wind direction, speed and gusts), are related statistically to one or more predictors.
An example of a forecast product from the GFS, in this case a 96-hour forecast of 850 mb geopotential height and temperature. The Global Forecast System (GFS) is a global numerical weather prediction system containing a global computer model and variational analysis run by the United States' National Weather Service (NWS).
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’s model is widely considered to be the gold standard. It was what Google wanted to beat with its first-of-its-kind AI version — and it did.
It comprises a spectral atmospheric model with a terrain-following vertical coordinate system coupled to a 4D-Var data assimilation system.In 1997 the IFS became the first operational forecasting system to use 4D-Var. [2] Both ECMWF and Météo-France use the IFS to make operational weather forecasts, but using a different configuration and resolution (the Météo-France configuration is ...